The latest value of the economic indicator "Inflation rate" was 4,30 % . The previous value of the "Inflation rate" indicator was 4,60 % . Next publication date – October 4, 2019, forecast 0,00 % . This indicator belongs to the category "Prices", country - Russia

Inflation rate: dynamics of changes in the indicator

What is the official inflation rate in Russia according to Rosstat for 2017 and 2018? On this page you will find the latest statistics, tables, graphs and latest expert forecasts.

Inflation in Russia. Forecasts for 2018

The Ministry of Economic Development expects that in April-May annual inflation will be in the range of 2.1-2.2%. “In June, annual price growth may fall below 2.0%, given the relatively high base of last year,” the ministry noted in mid-March in its traditional Economic Picture review.

The Ministry of Economic Development still believes that, provided there are no negative weather shocks, inflation will remain below the target value of 4% throughout the year.

The Central Bank, in its statement following the board meeting on March 23, also noted that “the slowdown in annual inflation may continue in the first half of the year, which is partly due to the effect of last year’s high base for food inflation.” “The gradual return of inflation to the target level will begin in the second half of this year, which will be facilitated by the further recovery of domestic demand,” the message said.

According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, inflation will be 3-4% in 2018 and will be close to 4% in 2019. “Under these conditions, the Bank of Russia will continue to reduce the key rate and complete the transition to a neutral monetary policy in 2018,” the Central Bank said in a statement.

The Interfax consensus forecast based on a survey of analysts at the end of March for inflation for 2018 is 3.7%.

Inflation in Russia by year. Table

In this table you will find the latest official statistics on inflation in Russia - by month and year, starting from 1991. Official inflation in Russia at the end of 2017 was 2.52%. This is the lowest level in the entire history of modern Russia.

Inflation expectations in Russia in 2018

In February 2018, the population's inflation expectations for the next 12 months dropped to a minimum level, as noted in the Bank of Russia bulletin "Inflation expectations and consumer sentiment of the population."

The population's expected inflation rate "renewed its lowest level in the entire history of observations (8.4 percent compared to 8.9 percent in January)," the document says. Observations have been carried out since January 2016.

Respondents' expectations regarding inflation by the end of this year and in the three-year period are also optimistic. Four percent of respondents are confident that inflation will be significantly below four percent by the end of this year. This is the highest figure on record. The share of those who believe that inflation in three years will significantly exceed four percent is at its lowest level in the entire history of observation - 40 percent. However, in general, the level of inflation expectations still remains high, and the share of those who expect inflation close to four percent is still less than a third of all respondents, the authors of the report indicate.

14 percent of respondents are confident that prices for food, non-food goods and services will not change or decrease. This is the highest figure since January 2016.

At the same time, the majority of Russians are confident that the prices for gasoline and meat have increased the most over the past month. The least expensive increases, according to respondents, were printed materials, services of cultural institutions and tourist services.

Decrease in inflation in 2018. What are the risks for the Russian economy?

The net profit of Russian banks during 2018-2021 will stagnate against the backdrop of a gradual decline in the volume of contributions to reserves; the contraction of bank margins caused by low inflation in the country will also have a restraining effect, according to the annual forecast of the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA) for the banking system .

Annual inflation in the Russian Federation in January, according to Rosstat, slowed to 2.2% from 2.5% in December. According to the Central Bank's forecast, annual inflation in the Russian Federation will remain below 4% in 2018 and will be close to this level in 2019. The regulator also recognized that in the first half of 2018, the slowdown in annual growth in consumer prices in the Russian Federation may continue.

According to calculations by ACRA analysts, Russian banks will earn a net profit of 0.9 trillion rubles in 2018, 1 trillion rubles each in 2019 and 2020, and 1.2 trillion rubles in 2021.

Inflation is the process of increasing prices for services and goods. It occurs due to the rapid increase in the number of paper money in the country. As a result, the national currency depreciates and the standard of living decreases. What are the inflation statistics according to Rosstat now and what changes will be in subsequent years according to official sources - more on that later in the material.

What is inflation?

Inflation— steady increase in prices for services and goods.

The process of increasing price value is the result of the activities of the state apparatus and its solution of economic and social issues. If the adopted laws in the future bring positive trends for the development of the country’s economy, then the growth of inflation will decrease and replace it deflation- the process of lowering the price level and increasing purchasing power.

There are three types of inflation:

• Creeping or moderate, in which price increases increase gradually. About 3-5% per year. This economic indicator is fixed in developed countries. Moderate inflation is a favorable factor for the economic situation, as demand increases, opportunities for investment and expansion of production open up;
• Galloping or "Latin" typical for developing countries. Its indicators are: 10-50% price growth per year;
• The critical period for the state comes when the indicators exceed 50%. This is how it is formed hyperinflation. It leads to the development of wars and interstate conflicts. Hyperinflation rates can reach a critical level of 200%.

Inflation in Russia has been calculated on the basis of the Consumer Price Index for goods and services, taking into account graphs and tables only since 1991.

During the Soviet era, the process of money depreciation was not officially calculated. The indicators of price reduction and consumer level are monitored by experts from the Federal State Statistics Service - Rosstat.

Rosstat collects and processes information on the price of goods and services in all regions of the country. The Federal State Statistics Service compares the collected data with indicators for the previous month and year, drawing up a graph or diagram as a percentage.

Inflation rate in Russia in 2017

To determine the inflation rate in 2017, you need to use official expert data, which is presented in the form of graphs, diagrams or tables. It is worth noting that since the beginning of 2017, according to official data from Rosstat, price growth in Russia amounted to 1.86%. Annualized - 3.33%. The graph of price increases for goods and services for each month of 2017 currently includes the following data:

The compiled table of money depreciation for 2017, expressed as a percentage relative to the previous period, is calculated for one calendar month from the first to the last day. The table is compiled according to official data from Rosstat experts based on the CPI.

The inflation index in Russia in 2017 took 13th position according to world statistics.

According to Rosstat experts, IMF experts and World Bank specialists, by the end of this year inflation will consolidate at around 4%, and the country’s economy will enter a phase of full growth. Consumer and investment demand will grow briskly.

Data for 2018

The planned inflation for 2018 in Russia, according to official data from Rosstat and the Ministry of Economic Development, was reduced to 4%. The assumptions were based on the “basic” price growth pattern for 2018, which was compiled on the basis of the average price of Urals oil and the average annual value of the US currency. However, not everyone agreed with this conclusion, as prices for goods and services rose by up to 12%.

Forecast for 2019

According to the latest statements by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, inflation may reach 5.5% in 2019.

The reason will be a slowdown in GDP growth due to an increase in VAT. The first quarter will be the most difficult; then the inflation rate is planned to stabilize.

Official data from Rosstat by year

The dynamics of inflation in Russia helps to assess the real economic state of the state at the current moment and in subsequent years. Below are the annual inflation data in Russia from 1991 to 2017 (for convenience, the information is presented in the table)

The inflation rate in 2013 significantly exceeded expected parameters, which led to a number of negative consequences in the Russian economy. The inflation forecast for 2014 is currently 5 - 6%; if tariffs for the services of natural monopolies are not increased, inflation in our country may be recorded at a level of less than 5%. These forecasts are given at the macroeconomic level; currently, many people are faced with a very noticeable increase in inflation associated with rising prices for various food products. This situation probably developed due to the winter season, but many Russians have already forgotten when the cost of various types of food products did not increase, but decreased. Note that to calculate a number of parameters, which, for example, are included in the estimate, inflation coefficients for 2014 are used. You can find this information on specialized websites on the Internet or in various periodicals in which regulations are published. Most likely, the expected inflation rate in 2014 will be exceeded. The pension reform being carried out in our country does not produce tangible results, and the gradual aging of the population leads to the need to increase pension payments. In addition, to fulfill the obligations given by the President of the Russian Federation, additional material resources are needed, which are not available in many regions of our country. One of the reasons for the increase in inflation in 2014 may be an increase in the cost of fuel due to an increase in excise taxes. Currently, the cost of fuel has decreased somewhat, but most likely we will see another seasonal increase in the cost of fuels and lubricants; moreover, many experts are considering the possibility of a significant increase in the cost of fuel, which could exceed the psychological mark of 40 rubles per liter.

In any case, many experts believe that in the next few years Russia will experience stagnation in the economy; most likely, all efforts of the Government of the Russian Federation will be aimed at maintaining a relatively low level of inflation.

The table provides information on inflation in Russia for the period from 1995 to 2014. Each cell indicates by what percentage the prices have changed for the corresponding period (month or year). The price decrease is shown with a minus sign. Inflation is calculated based on the consumer price index for goods and services, officially published by the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation.

Cumulative inflation for the entire period (1995-2014): 3,475.02%.

Average annual inflation in Russia over the past 10 years: 9.31%

• 0.7% -- inflation rate for February;
• 6.0% -- over the last 12 months.

Inflation in Russia in 2014, even if it will be below 5% (which is unlikely), will be by a symbolic amount. At the same time, it is unlikely that the government will allow figures higher than last year: this would give rise to talk about the deterioration of the situation and problems of the national currency. The foregoing allows us to outline horizons of 4.5 - 6.5 percent, where two unrealistic extremes are taken

The framework of 5-6% seems more realistic - here we see both realism and a balance of interests of all forces. Politically, such a course also seems “reliable,” and this is extremely important in the context of political problems that can be “imported” from neighboring Ukraine, not counting their own hotbeds.

Forecast of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation: 5.5%. IMF forecast: 6.3%. Forecast of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation: 5.0%. Forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development (MED): 4.8% → 6.5%.

The forecast assumes indexation of regulated prices and tariffs for the population in 2014. by the amount of inflation for the previous year with a reduction factor of 0.7 (inflation minus formula). This could further increase the inflation rate by about 0.5 percentage point. Tariffs for water and sewerage will increase by 2.1% in 2014.

Monthly inflation rates:

• January: 0.59%;
• February: 0.7%;
• March: 1.02%;
• April: 0.9%;
• May: 0.9%;
• June: 0.62%;
• July: 0.49%;
• August: 0.24%;
• September: 0.65%;
• October: 0.82%;
• November: 1.28%;
• December: 2.6%

Causes of inflation in 2014

1. Increasing excise taxes on automobile fuel.
2. Decrease in the exchange rate of the national currency.
3. Rising inflation expectations due to the weakening of the ruble.
4. Increased production inflation (due to the weakening of the ruble exchange rate, the manufacturer shifts costs to the buyer)
5. Crisis in Ukraine.
EU and US sanctions
6. Rising prices for alcohol and tobacco due to increased excise taxes.
7. Introduction of a food embargo (counter-sanctions) for the USA, EU, Canada

Ways to improve the anti-inflationary policy of the Russian Federation

1. Limiting the growth of tariffs for housing and communal services by the level of inflation over the past year (the program is expected to operate until 2018).
2. Limiting the rise in prices for gas and electricity for industry.
3. Creation of reserves for goods and products of seasonal demand (in particular, grain, diesel fuel, etc.)
4. Tightening monetary policy (reducing the money supply due to rising interest rates. In this case, expensive loans become unavailable).
5. In 2015, based on new guidelines for calculating regulated tariffs, it is planned to fix the cost of water for 3 and 5 years.
6. Creation of a special mechanism with the participation of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, which will increase the coordination of actions of the monetary authorities.
7. Replacing the exchange rate policy mechanism (cancellation of the range of permissible values ​​of the value of the bi-currency basket) with a regulation mechanism through the foreign exchange market (the Central Bank will enter the foreign exchange market at any time in the volumes that are necessary to bring down the rush, speculative demand)

Features of inflation in the Russian Federation

1. Non-monetary factors of inflation (inflation mainly due to the growth of tariffs of natural monopolies);
2. Seasonal factor in inflation (July - increase in prices for services of natural monopolies; August, September - decrease in prices for food products; November, December - increase in investment expenses of enterprises).
3. Following a pro-cyclical policy of tariff increases when tariff growth is greater than inflation. The term inflation minus means limiting the indexation of tariffs to the level of inflation for the previous year.
4. The phenomenon of inflation. Simultaneously with the fall in production rates, prices rise.
5. With the fall in world oil prices, there is an increase in the cost of petroleum products.
6. With the government indexing pensions and wages in the public sector, food inflation is growing rapidly.

Inflation is attracting more and more attention. And not only from economists, but also from ordinary people. What is it, how is it formed and what can it lead to? Features of inflation rates in Russia and a full table for 26 years.

According to economic definitions, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services within a country that can last for a long time. Every year, with rising inflation rates, the same amount of money can buy fewer and fewer goods. For example, 1000 rubles in 2007 turns into approximately 418 rubles in 2017.

Types of inflation

This economic phenomenon, according to modern classifications, has several varieties:

• demand inflation. Demand is higher than supply, which allows the manufacturer to raise prices for “rare” goods;
• cost inflation(offers). Production costs increase, causing the manufacturer to raise the cost of products.

There are other types of inflation which can be noted as follows:

• balanced. The cost of different goods does not change in relation to each other - prices rise for everything at once at approximately the same pace;
• unbalanced. One or more categories of goods may rise sharply in price relative to others, which rise in price much more slowly;
• predictable Using market analysis, the size can be calculated based on the expectations and behavior of economic entities. Often a country's annual budget includes a certain level of inflation;
• unpredictable. A sudden rise in prices, which no one could predict - neither analysts nor the population, ends up being higher than the predicted value;

Separately, it is worth highlighting the expectations of consumers, which are capable of creating artificial inflation. As a rule, it is provoked by rumors that some product will soon become scarce or rise sharply in price.

This happened with buckwheat in 2014, when someone spread a rumor that snow ruined the buckwheat harvest in the Altai Territory. Suppliers raised their prices, followed by retailers. And the population rushed to buy buckwheat, remembering the 80s and 90s, which ultimately led to its shortage and, naturally, an increase in cost.

There are three main types based on speed:

• moderate, or creeping. Prices are rising, but very slowly - up to 10% per year;
• galloping Money depreciates at a rate of 20 to 200% per year;
• hyperinflation. The most terrible sight for the state. Money depreciates at a tremendous rate - more than 200% per year.

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In this case, inflation can be suppressed or open. In the first case, it will go unnoticed by prices. That is, the growth of wages and prices is restrained by the state (as was the case in the USSR), but given the availability of money and the fixed cost of goods, there is simply nothing to buy. There is a shortage of products. With open inflation this is not the case – prices are regulated by the market itself.

The following two types also stand separately:

• imported inflation. It happens when too much foreign currency (for example, the dollar) comes into the country, coupled with an increase in prices for goods imported from abroad;
• exported inflation. It comes from other states through international economic relations and “infects” the country’s economy.

We can also distinguish stagflation, which is expressed in a simultaneous increase in prices for goods and a fall in production volumes.

Features of inflation in Russia

For each country, inflation has its own specifics. And Russia is no exception. The enormous influence of the USSR with its planning and distribution system of economic management killed the balance in the market and in the national economy. The consequences are still being felt today.

Only since 1991, the government began to gradually transfer the economy from a planned to a market one and try to somehow remove production from the control of the state. Naturally, this could not happen right away. There was a lack of legal framework and experience.

As a result, the proposed liberalization of prices, which started in 1992, led not to the establishment of market equilibrium in the country, but to hyperinflation due to lack of production capacity, massive monopolization of production and, as a consequence, lack of competition. Hyperinflation led to stagflation, which further aggravated the crisis. And the severance of ties with the countries of the former USSR led to further destruction of the economy. As a result, all these factors led to a sharp increase in the level of inflation in the country. Further liberalization of currency legislation did not help, but rather aggravated the situation.

We can say that the main cause of inflation is not excess money in circulation, but the monopolization of the market and, as a consequence, a sharp increase in prices through intermediaries.

It is noteworthy that one feature of inflation in Russia at that time was the pegging of the ruble to the dollar when setting the exchange rate only based on the results of trading on the Moscow Interbank Exchange. Although almost all currency was sold on the interbank market.

The year 1995 was characterized by government attempts to gain tight control over the supply of money to the economy. But this did not lead to anything other than the 1998 crisis. And by 1999, the country's gross national product had shrunk by half.

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After 1998, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation began to think about implementing anti-inflationary policies and supporting financial stability in the country. The active participation of the national regulator in the economy and national economy, as well as sensitive responses to the real financial situation, were able to resolve the situation. And gradually the economy and financial sector, despite the crises, are recovering and developing to this day.

But at the same time, it is worth remembering that today Rosstat, “out of old memory,” is trying to somewhat underestimate the official inflation indicators in its charts.

For example, according to Rosstat, in January 2017, official inflation was only 0.6%. And the Romir research holding calculated 3.2% using the deflator formula. On average, according to independent analyst Dmitry Adamidov, official inflation is lower than real inflation by a third.

What should inflation be for the country's economy to grow?

According to research conducted by A. Illarionov, high inflation negatively affects economic growth in the country. The faster prices rise, the slower the economy develops. Provided that all other factors do not affect this.

During the analysis, it turned out that in 1976-1996 the critical indicator of average annual inflation, which led to a halt in economic growth and, ultimately, an economic recession - 25-49%. At the same time, the maximum rates of economic growth during the same period were observed at an inflation rate of 1.1-4.7%.

We can conclude that the lower the rate of price growth, the better the economic condition of the state.

What causes inflation

In general, all the reasons why inflation may rise are as follows:

1. Excessive money emission - an increase in the amount of money leads to its depreciation;
2. Lack of money in the state budget - an excess of expenses over income;
3. Increased spending on military needs to the point of militarization of the economy;
4. Insufficient and slow development of the country's economy;
5. Monopoly pricing for goods and services in the state;
6. Anticipation of rising prices by citizens, which leads to the purchase of goods more than needed, and which consequently leads to rising prices due to increased demand;
7. Mutual import inflation is an increase in prices for exported and imported goods.

Naturally, individually, each of the reasons will not lead to catastrophic consequences. But the combination of even several of them can cause a gradual increase in the rate of inflation.

Inflation in Russia by year: 1991-2017.

In Russia, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, hyperinflation began almost immediately. Now no one controlled prices, and the market, which was not ready for this, was left to its own devices. And the already existing shortage of goods and lack of production capabilities ultimately led to a catastrophic rise in prices. In 1991, it amounted to 160.4% at the end of the year.