Population is the total number of people living in a certain area.

The population size at the beginning of each year can be determined using the balance equation:

where St and St +1- population at the beginning of the year t and years t + 1 respectively;

Nt- the number of births per year t;

Mt- the number of deaths per year t;

Fri- the number of arrivals to this territory per year t;

Bt- the number of people who left this territory per year t.

The average annual population can be calculated as the arithmetic mean of the number at the beginning and end of the period:

where SH and SK- population size at the beginning and end of the year, respectively.

If data on the population size for several equidistant dates are known, then the average population for the period can be calculated using the chronological average formula for moment series:

- population size at a specific date.

To characterize the dynamics of the population size, indicators of the series of dynamics are used.

The absolute indicators of population dynamics include:

1) basic absolute gains, characterizing the increase or decrease in the population indicator in each subsequent period compared to the baseline S0:

where S0- baseline population level;

- population size in the next period compared to the baseline level;

2) chain absolute increments, characterizing an increase or decrease in the population indicator in the period under review in comparison with the previous period:

- population size in the period under review;

Sn-1- population size in the previous compared to the period under review;

3) average absolute growth, characterizing by how many units, for example, annually for the studied period, the average population indicator changes:

where n- the number of periods under consideration.

The relative indicators of population dynamics include:

1) base rate of growth (decline) of the population, characterizing how many times the population indicator in each subsequent period is more or less than its base level S0.

The composition of the population is studied using groupings. When m, the population is grouped by sex, age, nationality, place of residence, marital status, level of education both in the country as a whole and in its individual regions.

Grouping the population by age helps to solve various problems in determining the contingents of preschoolers, schoolchildren, the number of the working-age population and the population over the working age. Grouping by age is built both for the entire population and separately for men and women, for the urban and rural population.

For example, as of January 1, 2001, 144.8 million people out of the total population of the country. the male population was 67.8 million. (47%), female - 77.0 million people. (53%); the urban population was 105.6 million. (73%); rural - 39.2 million people (27%) Of the total population of Russia, the proportion of people under the age of working age was 19.20%, in the working age - 60.15%, over the working age - 20.65%.

Study of the population size and its distribution throughout the country

In Russian statistics, the population is taken into account not only for the country as a whole, but also for individual administrative-territorial units. The Russian Federation comprises 21 republics, 6 territories, 49 regions, 2 cities of federal significance, 1 autonomous region, 10 autonomous regions.

The dynamics of the population is characterized using analytical and average indicators of dynamics (absolute growth, growth rate, growth rate, average absolute growth for the period, average growth rate for the period)

Average population over time

To calculate a number of indicators, it is extremely important to know the average population size for the period.

Arithmetic mean

If the population size at the beginning and end of the year is known, then the average annual population is calculated as the arithmetic mean of these two numbers.

where, and - population size at the beginning and end of the period.

• At the beginning of the year, 200 thousand people.
• At the end of the year, 260 thousand people.

SCHN = thousand people

Average chronological values ​​can be used for averaging moment indicators. The fact is that in economic analysis and economic statistics, both interval (for a certain period) and moment (for a certain date) indicators can be used. To find the average values ​​of interval indicators (sales revenue, profit, etc.), as a rule, arithmetic averages are used. It is worth saying that to find the average values ​​of moment indicators (about fixed assets, about the number of employees for any date, about the population), average chronological values ​​are used. They are determined by the formula:

- ϶ᴛᴏ a number of moment indicators

Simple chronological average

If the intervals between observations are located at regular intervals, then the formula is a simple chronological average.

• Introductory lesson is free;
• A large number of experienced teachers (native and Russian-speaking);
• Courses are NOT for a specific period (month, six months, a year), but for a specific number of classes (5, 10, 20, 50);
• More than 10,000 satisfied customers.
• The cost of one lesson with a Russian-speaking teacher - from 600 rubles, with a native speaker - from 1500 rubles

Population is a collection of people living within a certain territory: a part of a country of an entire country, a group of countries, the entire globe.

The population size is characterized by absolute moment levels and averages for the period. As a result of population censuses, information is obtained on the population for a specific date. In the intervals between censuses, the population is determined by calculation based on data on the natural and mechanical movement of the population.

The population at the beginning of the year is calculated:

where is the population at the beginning of year t and year t + 1

respectively;

- the number of births in the year t;

- the number of deaths in year t;

- the number of arrivals to the given territory in the year t;

- the number of people leaving the given territory in the year t.

Distinguish between permanent and existing population. Permanent population is a collection of people permanently residing in a given settlement, regardless of their location at the time of registration. Permanent population () is calculated: where is the current population; - temporarily absent; - temporarily present. The actual population is a set of people who were actually in a given point at the time of registration, regardless of their permanent place of residence. Available population () is calculated:

The average population for the period is determined as follows:

1) in the presence of data on the population at the beginning and at the end of the period according to the simple arithmetic mean formula:

where, is the population at the beginning and end of the period

respectively.

2) in the presence of data on the population size for certain dates with equally spaced intervals according to the chronological average formula:

,

where is the population at certain dates,

n is the number of dates.

3) in the presence of data on the population size for certain dates with unequally spaced intervals according to the formula of the arithmetic weighted average:, where is the population size that remains unchanged over a period of time; - the duration of the th period of time.

1.2. The concept and indicators of movement and reproduction of the population

Natural population movement is the change in population due to births and deaths. It is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.

Absolute indicators: a) the number of births; b) the number of deaths; c) natural growth.

Relative rates are coefficients that are determined by comparing the absolute rates of vital movement with the size of the population. They are calculated in relation to 1000 people of the population, i.e. in ppm (‰). The main relative indicators of natural movement are:

1) The fertility rate shows the number of births per thousand of the population:

2) The mortality rate shows the number of deaths per thousand of the population:

.

3) The rate of natural increase shows the increase or decrease in the population as a result of mortality and fertility per thousand people of the population:

or .

4). V.P. coefficient Pokrovsky shows the relationship between the birth rate and mortality rate:

The mechanical movement of the population is a change in the population of settlements, regions, countries due to migration.

Migration is the movement of people across the borders of certain territories with a change of residence. It is characterized by absolute and relative indicators.

The composition of the population is studied using. At the same time, the population is grouped by sex, age, nationality, place of residence, marital status, education level both in the country as a whole and in its individual regions.

Grouping the population by age helps to solve various problems in determining the contingents of preschoolers, schoolchildren, the number of the working-age population and the population over the working age. Grouping by age is built both for the entire population and separately for men and women, for the urban and rural population.

For example, as of January 1, 2001, out of the total population of the country, 144.8 million people. the male population was 67.8 million. (47%), female - 77.0 million people. (53%); the urban population was 105.6 million. (73%); rural - 39.2 million people (27%). Of the total population of Russia, the proportion of people under the age of working age was 19.20%, of the working age - 60.15%, over the working age - 20.65%.

Study of the population size and its distribution throughout the country

In Russian statistics, the population is taken into account not only for the country as a whole, but also for individual administrative-territorial units. The Russian Federation comprises 21 republics, 6 territories, 49 regions, 2 cities of federal significance, 1 autonomous region, 10 autonomous regions.

The dynamics of the population is characterized using analytical and average indicators of dynamics (absolute growth, growth rate, growth rate, average absolute growth for the period, average growth rate for the period).

Average population over time

To calculate a number of indicators, it is necessary to know the average population size for the period.

Arithmetic mean

If you know the population at the beginning and end of the year, then the average annual population is calculated from these two numbers.

where, and - population size at the beginning and end of the period.

• At the beginning of the year, 200 thousand people.
• At the end of the year, 260 thousand people.

СЧН = thousand people

Average chronological values ​​are used for averaging moment indicators. The fact is that in economic analysis and economic statistics, both interval (for a certain period) and moment (for a certain date) indicators are used. To find the average values ​​of interval indicators (sales revenue, profit, etc.), as a rule, values ​​are used. To find the average values ​​of moment indicators (about fixed assets, about the number of employees for any date, about the population), average chronological values ​​are used. They are determined by the formula:

Is a series of moment indicators

Simple chronological average

If the intervals between observations are located at regular intervals, then the formula is a simple chronological average:

where,,, and - population size for each date.

Population:

• as of January 1, 2008 - 4836 thousand people.
• as of April 1, 2008 - 4800 thousand people.
• as of July 1, 2008 - 4905 thousand people.
• as of October 1, 2008 - 4890 thousand people.
• as of January 1, 2009 - 4805 thousand people.

Determine the average population for the year.

1. The sum of the extreme intervals divided by two and the internal intervals is divided by the number of reporting dates minus one.

Chronological weighted

If the population was measured at irregular intervals, then - according to the chronological weighted formula:

For example, let's take intervals equal to months.

Calculation of the average population. The population of the city was: as of 01.01.2002 - 102 thousand people; as of 01.04.2002 -104 thousand people; as of 01.07.2002 -107 thousand people; as of 01.10.2002 - 105 thousand people; as of 01.01.2003 - 112 thousand people Define the average annual population of the city. Draw conclusions.

Solution

1. If there are data on the population size for individual dates with equal intervals between them (moment series of dynamics), the average number is calculated using the chronological average formula:

Scp = (1 / 2S 1, + S 2 + ... + S n-1, + 1 / 2S n) / n

where Si, - the levels of a number of dynamics (i = 1 ... p); n - the number of levels in the time series ½x102 + 104 + 107 + 105 + ½x112) / (5-1) = 105.8 thousand people.

2. If the data are known only at the beginning and end of the period (S H and S k), then the average population is calculated using the arithmetic mean formula:

(S H + S K) / 2 = (102 + 112) / 2 = 107 thousand people.

Thus, the average annual population of the city in 2002 was: according to the first calculation method -105.8 thousand people; according to the second method - 107 thousand people. However, the more accurate is the first method (calculation of the chronological average), where all the information provided is used.

BASIC DEFINITIONS

External migration- movement of the population from one country to another Internal migration- movement of the population within the country.

Temporarily absent- a group of persons who are outside the settlement or territory at the time of registration.

Temporary residents- persons who are at the time of registration in a given territory, but who have a permanent place of residence outside of it.

Population movement is called the change in population over a certain (studied) period of time.

Pendulum migration- the daily movement of people from their place of residence to the place of work or training and back. Its study is of great analytical importance, because it affects the level of employment of labor resources in the region and the balance between supply and demand in the labor market.

Migration presents the movement of people (migrants) across the borders of certain territories with a change of place of residence forever or for a more or less long time.

Available population- this is a set of persons located in a given territory at the time of registration, regardless of their place of permanent residence.

Permanent population is a set of people usually living in a given territory, regardless of their location at the time of registration.

Seasonal migration- change in the number of the available population in certain periods of the year.

Questions for self-control.

1. What is the purpose of population statistics?

2. What are the objectives of population statistics?

3. What are the objects of observation and the main sources of information for population statistics?

4. What are the indicators of the vital movement of the population?

5. What are the indicators of the mechanical movement of the population?

6. Sources of information about the population.